Mathieu Laberge, CMHC’s chief economist, spoke at the Mortgage Professionals Canada conference in Calgary in October, and Canadian Mortgage Trends covered what he said. His message had two halves. Affordability has improved in every major Canadian market since 2023. And construction is slowing faster than demand, which sets up the next shortage.
The detail that stayed with me was timing. A condo or rental project takes six to eight years from idea to keys. Demand can come back in a year or two. His line for it: “We should not close the fire station because it’s raining.”
He also described the wrong kind of supply. There are plenty of small units in expensive downtown towers. What’s missing are affordable two- and three-bedroom homes near transit, outside the city centre.
That is a description of Surrey. Fleetwood, Clayton, the Newton corridor, the stops along the coming SkyTrain line. It’s also exactly the home a lot of my clients are trying to move into, usually from a one-bedroom condo or a starter townhouse.
If you’re planning to move up in the next few years
I won’t predict prices. But if CMHC is right, the gap between the place you own now and the place you want could widen again once demand returns. A family planning a move should start the paperwork during a quieter market, not after it gets busy.
Here is what I look at first.
Your current mortgage. Can it be ported to the new home, and what’s the penalty if it can’t? On a fixed rate with a big bank, that penalty can run well into five figures. Sometimes it decides the timing on its own.
Your renewal date. If you renew in the next year or two and a move is likely, a shorter term or a portable product can save you a penalty later. People lock into five years at renewal without asking whether they’ll still be in the home.
What you qualify for on the bigger mortgage. The stress test applies to the new amount. A family that qualified easily for a $550,000 condo mortgage can be surprised at $1.1 million, especially if one income has changed.
Buying before you sell. Two-to-three-bedroom homes near transit are the ones that move quickly. If the right one comes up before yours is sold, you’ll want to know your bridge options before you write the offer.
If you’re in a condo or townhouse in Surrey and the family is outgrowing it, let’s look at your numbers now, while you have time to plan. Bring your mortgage statement and I’ll show you what moving up would cost, and when.
